Tag Archives: Rate of Absorption

Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County March 2014!


Good evening everyone and welcome to Raymond’s Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County and San Jose Real Estate 2014!  What a year so far as the market is again on the rise.

While the inventory contributes to the pricing here in Silicon Valley, the demand over supply is still very high even after homes have appreciated 19.97% for the first 3 months of this year.  So how high will it go?  That’s a great question everyone asks these days.  Santa Clara County has been on the rise since we bottomed out in February 2009 when the median price dropped to $442,000.   As of March 31, 2014 it hit $865,000 which happens to only be $3,000 away from a high of $868,000 in 2007.

The market is different these days.  Such as the interest rates that have increased by 1-1.5% higher over last year, but still 3% lower than it was during the dot.com days.  The down payment is also much different.  I remember all cash during the dot.com days, the stated income days or when buyers were coming in with a 1st and a 2nd loans and only 5% of their own money.  Today, buyers are coming in with ALL CASH again.  At least 33% of the time with my listings last year and or 20%-50% down.  The down payment in some cases has even come from the parents.  I just had one that the parents gifted $200k+ to their child so that they can accomplish their dream…and guess what?  It worked when I had 7 offers and their down payment was the highest.  The question that most buyers ask is what difference does it make when one has 10% down and the other has 35% down…isn’t all the same at the time it closes escrow?  It is…if it closes.  That’s a big if during the 20-30 days it takes to close escrow as qualifications in my experienced have changed and or the lender didn’t really qualify the buyer in the first place.  I can get into more of that if you want to call me at 408-655-7900.  Bottom line is every seller I have dealt with has taken the highest or pretty close to the highest down payment that happens to be in line with the best terms and best price.

Inventory is still an all time low over most real estate markets we have had since 1999 in Santa Clara County.  Generally we can see 1,500-4,000 at this time of the year and yet the inventory ended in the month of March 2014 at 906 single family homes available. The weather didn’t help out buyers this year as our spring started in December 2013 instead of March or April 2014.  Another reason if you are a buyer and or a seller reading this you should contact me.  Most these days haven’t sold or purchased during the crazy markets we are experiencing. and think of Spring or Summer being the best months to buy or sell. I can show you numbers that say something different.

Take a look at just some of the graphs below showing actual numbers for Santa Clara County Real Estate, San Jose Real Estate, Almaden Valley Real Estate, Cupertino Real Estate, Santa Clara Real Estate, Campbell Real Estate, Blossom Valley, and Los Gatos Real Estate. 

Santa Clara County median price up 19.97% for the 1st 3 months.

ALMADEN median price 21.5%↑ Feb.-March or 7.7%↑ over same time last year. 

 Cupertino median price 13.2% Feb.-March or 21.3%↑ over same time last year.

Cambrian median price 8.4%↑ Feb.-March or 11.7%↑ over same time last year.

CAMPBELL median price 2.3% Feb.-March or 11.3% over same time last year. 

SANTA CLARA median price 1.1%↑ Feb.-March or 23.5%↑ over same time last year.

LOS GATOS-Monte Sereno median 15.1%↓ Feb.-Marchor 7%↑ over same time last year.

BLOSSOM VALLEY median price 1.7%↓ Feb.-March or 8.3%↑ over same time last year.

Thanks for reading Raymond Chavez Real Estate Blog!  In the mean time don’t forget to visit www.raymondchavez.com to connect with me on LinkedIn or Facebook!

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Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County September 2013!


Good evening everyone and welcome to Raymond’s Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County and San Jose Real Estate 2013!  Wow, what a year so far!!!  It’s already the end of September and before you know it I will be talking about 2014.

So where do I begin?  The inventory is still way down…a whopping 1,350 available single family homes as of today and that is down from our peak of 1,482 single family homes available in Santa Clara County in July of this year. Low inventory means a great year for sellers since the demand is very high even in August after the June and July summer months have passed us by.  So far August has had the highest amount of homes go into contract over any other month this year.  The County appreciated 24.4%↑ since January 2013 to $838,000 and was only 3% from hitting our all time high back in 2007, which was $868,000 median price.  Better yet, as of today $810,000 median price for Santa Clara County is up 83%↑ from our all time low back in 2009, so if you are one of those buyers who waited for the phantom inventory or homes to keep dropping I hope you are convinced it’s not coming.

While the median price dropped from July 13 to August 13 by 3%↓…if this inventory doesn’t increase in many areas I hate to say, but the median price can climb even more come spring 2014.  Especially when I hear my colleagues say there are missing out on properties in Cupertino after offering $300k over asking with 0 contingencies and free rent back only to get rejected. I know we still have interest rates that do help in the real estate market, but here in Santa Clara County it’s not the only factor when buyers decide to take ownership or upgrade.  Between the rental market getting tighter and the interest rates that have risen by 1% from the beginning of the year seems like it washes out as homes are still selling at record highs.

Here is a graph of what the inventory use to look like 5 years back. The light green bar means available homes for sale…

Take a look at some graphs below showing actual numbers for Santa Clara County Real Estate, San Jose Real Estate, Almaden Valley Real Estate, Santa Clara Real Estate, Evergreen Real Estate, Campbell Real Estate, Blossom Valley, and Los Gatos Real Estate. 

Santa Clara County median price up 24% for the year.

ALMADEN median price 3%↓ July 13-Aug. 13 or 8%↑ for the year.

 Cupertino median price 4.6%↓ July 13-Aug. 13 or 15%↑ for the year.

Cambrian median price .7%↑ July 13-Aug. 13 or 11.8%↑ for the year.

CAMPBELL median price 1.8%↓ July 13-Aug. 13 or 13.6%↑ for the year.

SANTA CLARA median price 2%↑ July 13-Aug. 13 or 25%↑ for the year.

LOS GATOS-Monte Sereno median 5.3%↓ July 13-Aug. 13 or 3.2%↓ for the year.

BLOSSOM VALLEY median price .8%↓ July 13-Aug. 13 or 23.6%↑ for the year.

Thanks for reading Raymond Chavez Real Estate Blog!  In the mean time don’t forget to visit www.raymondchavez.com to connect with me on LinkedIn or Facebook!

Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County January 2013!


Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Raymond’s Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County and San Jose Real Estate 2013!   I always like to start this out by telling everyone that I state real numbers whether they are good or bad.  Something I wish the media would do.  Should you want detail information for a certain zip code as I have done for a few neighborhoods below feel free to email me, and if I have numbers for that particular area I will supply them.  I hope you enjoy…

Santa Clara County inventory is down to 557 single family homes available as of December 31, 2012 compared to December 31, 2011 when we finished off the year with 1,468.  Year over year that is 62% less available. I can only go back 10 years and what I’ve found was this is the lowest in 10+ years.  The 2nd lowest month was back in December 2004 when there were only 848 homes available on the market.  I”m sure you are thinking that less home owners decided to sell last year.  Guess what?  There were 8% more homes that sold in 2012 over 2011 or 11,974 in 2012 over 11,094 in 2011.

The median price for Santa Clara County is up 40% for 2012.  Currently at $681,000 and up 28.5% over 2011.  Everyone knows that at the end of the year we always have a slight decrease only to increase in the next several months, but not the case for 2012. .  So, be ready…

Something else to think about is the absorption rate for single family sold properties as of December 2012…160.3%. The Rate of Absorption measures the inverse of Months of Inventory and represents how much of the current active listings (as a percentage) are being absorbed (sold or pending) each month. The Absorption Rate is presented as a percentage (%) of the current inventory.  Another great sign for you future home sellers…not so good for the future buyer if you are still waiting for the real estate market to bottom.

Take a look at some graphs below showing actual numbers for Santa Clara County Real Estate, San Jose Real Estate, Almaden Valley Real Estate, Santa Clara Real Estate, Evergreen Real Estate, Campbell Real Estate, Blossom Valley, and Los Gatos Real Estate. 

Santa Clara County median price 40% for the year.

ALMADEN median price 8.2%↓ Nov.12-Dec.12 or 12.3%↑ for the year.

 Cambrian median price 2.8↑ Nov. 12-Dec.12 or 37.8%↑ for the year.

CAMPBELL median price 5.3%↑ Nov.12-Dec.12 or 8.7%↑ for the year.

SANTA CLARA median price 3.7%↓ Nov.12-Dec.12 or 25%↑ for the year.

LOS GATOS-Monte Sereno median 11.5%↑ Nov.12-Dec.12 or 15.2%↑ for the year.

BLOSSOM VALLEY median price 10.7%↑ Nov.12-Dec.12 or 23.6%↑ for the year.

Thanks for reading Raymond Chavez Real Estate Blog!  In the mean time don’t forget to visit www.raymondchavez.com to connect with me on LinkedIn or Facebook!

Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County January 2012!


Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Raymond’s Real Estate Update for Santa Clara County and San Jose Real Estate 2012!   I always like to start this out by telling everyone that I state real numbers whether they are good or bad.  Something I wish the media would do.  Should you want detail information for a certain zip code as I have done for a few neighborhoods below feel free to email me, and if I have numbers for that particular area I will supply them.  I hope you enjoy…

Santa Clara County inventory is down to 1,468↓ single family homes as of December 31, 2011.  The county hasn’t been this low since December 2004 when there were only 848 homes available on the market.  That is down from December 2010 by 35.6%↓ while pending properties are up 10% from Dec.11 over Dec.10.  As of today January 19th there are only 1,541 single family homes currently available on the mls, and that number hasn’t been that low since January 2005.  Also, the median price for 2011 in Santa Clara County closed out with a 2.5%↑ increase overall sitting at $538,000 .  Everyone knows that at the end of the year we always have a slight decrease only to increase in the next several months.  So, be ready…

Something else to think about is the absorption rate for single family pending properties as of December 2011…up 58.4%.  It hasn’t been that high since March 2010 when it hit 58.5%.  The Rate of Absorption measures the inverse of Months of Inventory and represents how much of the current active listings (as a percentage) are being absorbed (sold or pending) each month. The Absorption Rate is presented as a percentage (%) of the current inventory.  Another great sign for you future home sellers…not so good for the future buyer if you are still waiting for the real estate market to bottom.

Interest rates hit another record low for the eighth time in one year on a 30-year mortgage as of today…3.88% according to the Associated Press, down from 3.89% a week ago.   This is rate is obviously on loans less than $417,000.  

Take a look at some graphs below showing actual numbers for Santa Clara County Real Estate, San Jose Real Estate, Almaden Valley Real Estate, Santa Clara Real Estate, Evergreen Real Estate, Campbell Real Estate, Blossom Valley, and Los Gatos Real Estate. 

Santa Clara County median price 3.9%↓ Nov.11-Dec.11 or 2.5%↑ for the year.

ALMADEN VALLEY median price 9%↓ Nov.11-Dec.11 or 3.8%↑ for the year.

 

EVERGREEN median price 2.6%↓ Nov. 11-Dec.11 or 8.7%↓ for the year. 

 

CAMPBELL mls area median price 1.5%↑ Nov.11-Sept.11 or .2%↑ for the year.

City of SANTA CLARA median price 1.7%↓ Nov.11-Dec.11 or 2.4%↑ for the year.

LOS GATOS-Monte Sereno median 4.5%↓ Nov.11-Dec.11 or 9%↑ for the year.

BLOSSOM VALLEY median price 2.2↓ Nov.11-Dec.11 or 1.1%↓for the year.

Thanks for reading Raymond Chavez Real Estate Blog!  In the mean time don’t forget to visit www.raymondchavez.com to connect with me on LinkedIn or Facebook!